Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2015 15:49:13 GMT -6
1 Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14) COLLEGE: Florida State Class: Soph HT: 6-3 WT: 231 POS: QB
Analysis: By now most people are aware the Bucs made the somewhat unprecedented move (at least as far as I can recall) of having Winston visit with the team and owners for a few days this week. This followed a great combine for Winston. I wouldn't read into it further than to say it reflects just how pivotal this decision is for Tampa, but I ultimately think the Bucs will end up with Winston, though it should be noted I'm certain Marcus Mariota will have a long visit as well, and that could make an impact. As for the player: Winston is a major talent, in a category with some of the big-name No. 1 QB picks we've seen. He's the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. He's big, durable, strong-armed and has both a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do. This is no lock, but it makes sense.
2 Leonard Williams Tennessee Titans (2-14) COLLEGE: USC Class: Jr HT: 6-4 WT: 302 POS: DE
Analysis: No change here from my previous mock, with a reminder that this pick is a high-leverage spot because it's the one spot you can trade up to and assure yourself of getting Marcus Mariota or even Jameis Winston if Mariota were to go No. 1 overall. That said, I'm not projecting trades here and I think Tennessee is in position to take the best football player available in the draft. Williams has the potential to be a force early in his career, make your defensive line better against both the run and the pass and offer scheme versatility. If Winston is available, he becomes the pick, but Williams makes sense.
3 Dante Fowler Jr. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13) COLLEGE: Florida Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 261 POS: DE
Analysis: Fowler put together an outstanding NFL combine, showing well above-average athletic ability with a 4.61 40 time and a 1.56 10-yard split at 261 pounds, and lest you think he's more athlete than player, it's certainly not the case. While the production wasn't off the charts at Florida, Fowler was asked to move around a lot, yet another factor that gives him the kind of "high floor" label we put on Khalil Mack at this time last year. He doesn't have to be a sack machine to be a really good player, and I do think the pass rush will continue to get better, which is what Jacksonville desperately needs.
4 Kevin White Oakland Raiders (3-13) COLLEGE: West Virginia Class: Sr HT: 6-2 WT: 215 POS: WR
Analysis: After running a 4.35 40 in Indy and looking great in drills, White has closed the gap on Amari Cooper on my Big Board. I still have Cooper ahead of him because he's the more well-rounded and accomplished receiver, but White's star potential is now clear and I can see him beating Cooper out at this slot. White is a threat all over the field, will make the contested catch, and has home run speed with the ball in his hands. He's the type of player who doesn't just make plays in the deep passing game, but can make traffic catches underneath and will also turn some short throws into big yards. The Raiders feel they have their franchise QB, so it's important to start surrounding him with talent and, in this case, a playmaker.
5 Shane Ray Washington Redskins (4-12) COLLEGE: Missouri Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 240 POS: DE
Analysis: For the record, Ray can or should also be listed as an OLB. The Redskins have needs all over the secondary, but there just isn't value to be found at this pick slot at either cornerback or safety. And the quickest way to improve a secondary without making wholesale changes back there is to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If the board breaks this way the Redskins could go with Ray or Randy Gregory and feel they're getting more productivity in the pass rush in 2015. Let's not forget this is another possible trade-up spot for a team that would want to get Marcus Mariota before the Jets have a chance to take him at No. 6, and given the many needs and missed picks of recent years, the Redskins might be smart to move down.
6 Marcus Mariota, New York Jets (4-12), COLLEGE: Oregon, Class: Jr HT: 6-3, WT: 222, POS: QB
Analysis: As I've said before, the reality is New York is no closer to knowing who its potential long-term solution at QB is than it was after the second day of the 2013 NFL draft. It's also pretty clear there isn't much to be found in free agency. I do think Mariota has been fantastic during the process, with very good workouts and spectacular interviews at the NFL combine, and I think he's been able to assuage some fears that he was merely a system-keeper at Oregon. You can question whether he's ready to help a team win games in 2015, but you can't question Mariota's physical profile or his potential to improve and grow as an NFL quarterback given his attitude and work habits.
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7Randy GregoryChicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: OLB
Analysis: John Fox has made it clear that he intends to go to a 3-4 base system on defense, which all but puts every player you could call an "edge" rusher on the roster on notice. Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston and Willie Young may be great making the transition; they may not. The Bears could use some assurance that they'll have at least one great fit as a stand-up 3-4 edge rusher, and if Gregory is still here at this point they should be happy. Gregory offers length, and explosiveness that plays up both on tape and when he's sprinting in Under Armour. There are some concerns about his lean frame but I think he plays the point pretty well and isn't going to be a liability against the run as he develops.
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8Vic BeasleyAtlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: ClemsonClass: SrHT: 6-3WT: 246POS: OLB
Analysis: No player has risen more on the draft boards of teams across the league coming out of the NFL combine. When you run 4.53 with a 1.59 split, post a vertical of 41 inches and put up a bench press total (35 reps) that's as good as the strongest nose tackles, and at a chiseled 246 pounds -- well, you turn some heads. Thing is, Beasley isn't just an athletic freak because he's been a one-man production line at Clemson, with 44.5 tackles for loss over the last two seasons. He can flat out create disruption and get to the quarterback, and that's exactly what Atlanta needs. The pass rush is desperate for production and Beasley can help soon.
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9Andrus PeatNew York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: StanfordClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 313POS: OT
Analysis: The Giants could go shopping at right tackle in free agency, but given the needs around the NFL, they could opt to pass and look for a starter there from the draft. Andrus Peat has the potential to be the best offensive tackle drafted in 2015 because even as he's an unfinished product, he's already shown he can keep a QB clean for long stretches and he's capable of dealing with pass-rushing speed on the edge. I think he has the chance to come in right away and compete for the starting job at right tackle and he offers the profile of a future blindside tackle. You can do worse here.
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10Amari CooperSt. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 211POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams aren't going to get a QB here. It's just not happening. And whether Sam Bradford is back next season, or it's somebody else, they need to find a way to improve the options in the passing game beyond the current mix of talented but complementary options. Cooper is a true No. 1, a supremely gifted route runner who doesn't just do it with smarts, but with 4.4 speed and the ability to set up defenders and then run past them. The Rams keep improving on defense and remain stuck in place on offense. Cooper is a true building-block piece.
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11Trae WaynesMinnesota Vikings (7-9)COLLEGE: Michigan StateClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 186POS: CB
Analysis: If Cooper were to slide past the Rams he's one of the easiest picks in the draft here, but if he doesn't and the board breaks this way it could be hard for Minnesota to pass on a player who both profiles as a safe pick -- the tape is there -- and an explosive one who can create points on the defensive side of the ball. Especially when this draft is again chock full of pass-catching talent. The Vikings are in decent shape up front, but they lack both depth and size at cornerback, which is no fun in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler on the schedule six times a year. (To be clear: That's a mix of a lot of competent throwing and potential for INTs.) Waynes isn't much of a reach here after a stellar combine and definitely hits a need.
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12Danny SheltonCleveland Browns (7-9)COLLEGE: WashingtonClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 339POS: DT
Analysis: Teams ran consistently and effectively on the Browns last season, and it started in the middle of the line, where they just didn't have the block-eaters after Phil Taylor was lost with an injury. And while we know the Browns need to add at least one pass-catcher who can come in and help early, Shelton landing here would be a gift. He's not as disruptive as sack and TFL totals indicate, but he can eat up double-teams at the point of attack and make others around him better. He has great awareness and will occasionally simply discard blocks and make the tackle himself. He can also eat up snaps. At 340 pounds, he's exactly what the Browns need in the middle.
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13Brandon ScherffNew Orleans Saints (7-9)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 319POS: OT
Analysis: The Saints could end up cutting one of their guards and couldn't do any better in adding a replacement in the draft if Scherff is still available here. I've said before I see Scherff as a high-floor addition on the offensive line, because even if he doesn't stay at tackle I think he can become a dominant guard pretty early on. The player isn't a facsimile, but you can make a comparison to how Dallas drafted Zack Martin and moved him inside as a rookie and saw him flourish; I think the Saints can count on immediate dividends from Scherff. He's one of the more dominant run-blocking linemen we've seen in the draft in the past few years, and he brings experience and the ability to take on the job like a professional right away.
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14DeVante ParkerMiami Dolphins (8-8)COLLEGE: LouisvilleClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 209POS: WR
Analysis: Brandon Gibson is gone, Brian Hartline is too, and Mike Wallace has a chance to be traded. In short, wide receiver is becoming a pretty clear need for this offense. Parker has as high a ceiling as you can find in this class and it wouldn't surprise me at all if someday we're talking about him as the best of the top three guys in this class, as I have them closely grouped. Parker will beat defenders to the ball on high-point catches with his size, leaping ability and catch radius, and he's underrated as a threat to add yards after the catch on short throws. I can see Miami going a few different ways here, but Parker makes sense because the Dolphins need to keep options available for Ryan Tannehill.
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15Arik ArmsteadSan Francisco 49ers (8-8)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-7WT: 292POS: DE
Analysis: Armstead to San Francisco would be a good balance of hitting an immediate need and the 49ers adding yet another player with high upside they can develop -- it's an area they've succeeded in consistently. The 49ers are staring at a situation where Ray McDonald is gone and Justin Smith is likely to follow -- and even if Smith continues to play it shouldn't be a ton of snaps. They do add Darnell Dockett, but he's 34. Armstead is big, powerful, athletic and raw, and while he won't be great right away because he's inconsistent and hasn't truly locked in a defined role, he's physically ready to help and should be able to provide a spark as a rotation player on the line.
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16La'El CollinsHouston Texans (9-7)COLLEGE: LSUClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 308POS: T
Analysis: The departure of Andre Johnson isn't going to make make the Texans depart from the blueprint of a team that can win the physical battle at the line of scrimmage. Depending on what happens in free agency the Texans could be looking for immediate help at right tackle and potentially guard depending on how they decide to move people around. Collins is a player many have pegged as a dominant NFL guard (not a bad thing to have), but I think he can stay at tackle and play well. At a minimum he's going to be fantastic in the run game, as he can simply take people where they don't want to go.
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17Malcom BrownSan Diego Chargers (9-7)COLLEGE: TexasClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 319POS: DT
Analysis: This pick could go in a few different directions. The Chargers need to add bodies along the offensive line; they need another pass-catcher; they could use another cornerback even with the addition of Jason Verrett in last year's draft. But I think the fit of Brown as a needed two-gapper on the interior of that defensive line makes a lot of sense. Brown isn't a complete product but he's one of the better run-defending solutions among defensive linemen in this draft and gives the Chargers more upside for a guy playing between Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget.
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18Jaelen StrongKansas City Chiefs (9-7)COLLEGE: Arizona StateClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 217POS: WR
Analysis: This draft is so loaded with pass-catchers I think Strong tends to get overlooked. He put together a great week in Indy, running 4.44 at nearly 220 pounds, and the fact that he came in slightly under 6-foot-3 was countered by a 42-inch vertical, a number that shows up on tape as Strong wins on balls in the air and won't just out-muscle defenders, but can shed them as a runner. I don't know if a true down-the-field threat is going to magically turn Alex Smith into a QB who is willing to test defenses deep -- or even if that's what Andy Reid really thinks Smith can be -- but Strong certainly helps make it an option, something this offense needs.
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19Ereck FlowersCleveland Browns (7-9)COLLEGE: Miami (FL)Class: JrHT: 6-6WT: 329POS: OT
Analysis: I can see Browns fans cringing at the thought of a first round with two picks that doesn't deliver a wide receiver. But let's remember this draft is packed with pass-catching talent, and if the board breaks this way I think the Browns could target a potential high-impact offensive lineman rather than taking the fifth receiver available at No. 19 overall. The Browns were really set back on offense last year when they lost Alex Mack, and while Flowers isn't a center, a player like him would have helped offset the brutal ripple effect we saw last year. For a team that has to run the ball to be successful on offense, making sure things are in a good place up front is crucial. The Browns can still get a couple of good pass-catchers from this draft.
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20Jalen CollinsPhiladelphia Eagles (10-6)COLLEGE: LSUClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 203POS: CB
Analysis: Chip Kelly is in the midst of remaking the roster, but be it via trade or in free agency he's going to see it won't be easy to simply plug holes at cornerback, an area where the Eagles need help. Collins is a high-upside play as a cornerback with good size, reach and athletic attributes. He can play physical but also turn and run with the fastest wide receivers in the league. He's not a complete package yet, but he can press, play off and shows awareness in zone. This is a big enough need that Collins probably won't be the only CB the Eagles draft.
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21Eli HaroldCincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)COLLEGE: VirginiaClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 247POS: OLB
Analysis: You can quibble all day about whether Harold is a perfect fit in Cincinnati; what can't be argued is that the Bengals' pass rush was absolutely dreadful in 2014 -- pretty safely the worst in the NFL -- and they simply need to find more explosiveness off the edge. Harold isn't the total package in terms of his ability to counter when he gets blocked or display great awareness against the run, but the guy has tremendous get-off and is an exceptional athlete who can beat people with quickness. The Bengals can't go wrong if they add a pass-rusher here.
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22Landon CollinsPittsburgh Steelers (11-5)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 228POS: S
Analysis: In my previous mock, I had Collins landing here as a player who can come in and contribute right away. Even if the Steelers decide Troy Polamalu is fine to come back for another year, they won't expect him to play every down, and Collins would not only help right away but serve as a logical replacement. He's a highly versatile safety who can make plays at the line of scrimmage and won't look bad in coverage. He brings a ton of experience. I also think getting the top safety in the draft at No. 22 would be a solid value.
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23Eddie GoldmanDetroit Lions (11-5)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 336POS: DT
Analysis: Mr. McShay made a good point on the podcast this week, which is that even if the Lions hold on to Ndamukong Suh they still need to add depth on the interior of the defensive line because they could lose a couple of pieces from last year's rotation. The Lions also need to add help along the offensive line, but even though you can't replace Suh from a performance standpoint, you can at least try to make sure the D-line doesn't go from strength to weakness in a single offseason. Goldman is a good interior defender who can occupy blocks and will flash quickness to disrupt, and has a chance to become really good if his growth continues. This is a need even if Suh is back. Without him, it's a true void.
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24Melvin GordonArizona Cardinals (11-5)COLLEGE: WisconsinClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 215POS: RB
Analysis: A healthy Andre Ellington gives Arizona some explosiveness out of the backfield, but he's not a player you want to rely on for too many touches, and a good running game will go a long way in Arizona. Gordon has the explosiveness that you need from an RB taken this high -- he's a true game-breaker -- but he's also proved durable. Linebacker is another big need for Arizona, but that's one the team can hit further down the board. If Gordon seems like a luxury pick, the Cardinals could certainly argue he's an immediate-impact player for a team that wants to win.
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25D.J. HumphriesCarolina Panthers (7-8-1)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 307POS: OT
Analysis: Last year at this point in the draft the Panthers addressed a major need when they added Kelvin Benjamin. That was a play-right-away situation, and even while you want to avoid that at tackle, this could be another one for a rookie because Carolina was dreadful here last year and free agency might not do the trick. Humphries is a guy who rose on my board after I saw him play well against some of the top pass-rushers in the SEC. He lacks polish, but he plays mean, keeps a wide base that makes him tough to get around, and the physical traits are there for him to potentially stick at left tackle.
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26Marcus PetersBaltimore Ravens (10-6)COLLEGE: WashingtonClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 197POS: CB
Analysis: This is a spot where the Ravens can either look to help their own passing game by adding a wide receiver, or look to stop the opposition's by hitting a big need at cornerback. Last year, injuries played a big role in Baltimore's pass defense essentially falling apart, a reminder that depth at cornerback is crucial. I've noted before Peters has some question marks -- he was dismissed from the team at Washington this past season -- but if it's purely a question of talent, he's a potential steal at this point in the first round. He has loads of natural ability, with playmaker instincts to go with very good ball skills.
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27Kevin JohnsonDallas Cowboys (12-4)COLLEGE: Wake ForestClass: SrHT: 6-0WT: 188POS: CB
Analysis: Dallas could go a few ways here, because the Cowboys have a need along the defensive line, and safety is also a question mark, but I'm not sure they need anything more than a cornerback who can play right away, and Johnson fits the profile. A standout on a lousy team, Johnson has good length for the position and moves and mirrors as well as any cornerback in the draft. He can make man-to-man coverage look so easy at times, and he's an active run defender. It's hard to play while ahead in the NFL if you can't cover, and Dallas would do well with this pick.
28 Cameron Erving Denver Broncos (12-4) COLLEGE: Florida State Class: Sr HT: 6-5 WT: 313 POS: OC
Analysis: If the Broncos want to keep the run game humming under Gary Kubiak they could use at least one versatile offensive lineman on the inside, and it'd be hard to do better than Erving at this spot. I like Erving at center because he was outstanding there after a midseason switch from tackle, but he provides extra value because he can play tackle as well and also has experience at guard. He's also just played a lot of football, period, and is going to adapt well. From center or guard he's particularly good at winning on the initial block and getting to the second level.
29 T.J. Clemmings Indianapolis Colts (11-5) COLLEGE: Pittsburgh Class: Sr HT: 6-4 WT: 309 POS: OT
Analysis: It's tempting to look at the defensive line here because the need is pretty obvious, but at this point Clemmings becomes extremely attractive because the potential is so significant. In terms of raw tools you're looking at maybe the best physical package in the draft for a future NFL left tackle. But Clemmings is a converted basketball player, a major physical talent who can be exposed by pass-rushers who have a few tricks. The Colts are OK on the left side but could definitely use another tackle in the portfolio and just talent, period, on an offensive line that took a step forward in 2014 but isn't close to a top unit.
30 Jordan Phillips Green Bay Packers (12-4) COLLEGE: Oklahoma Class: Soph HT: 6-5 WT: 329 POS: DT
Analysis: If I lined up needs for the Packers right now, it would be interior lineman as the top need, followed by an inside linebacker. Just based on the likelihood for immediate impact, it's a lot easier to find the linebacker further down the board. Phillips has a motor that can run hot and cold, but the potential is significant because he lands pretty close to the "freak" category of athlete for a guy who stands over 6-foot-5, has long arms to keep blocks at bay, and weighs 330 pounds. The effort can be inconsistent, but at his best he can control blocks (or toss them) and can pursue like a much lighter, faster player when he finds a lane. You have to believe you can get him to his full potential, but if you get him close, Phillips can be a scheme-versatile menace.
31 Breshad Perriman Seattle Seahawks (12-4 )COLLEGE: UCF Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 212 POS: WR
Analysis: Seattle was a play away from winning the Super Bowl -- a game in which the Seahawks had five players catch passes, none of them a wide receiver who was actually drafted. Seattle has been resourceful at wide receiver, but the group it has just isn't very explosive. The Seahawks could really use a decent size-speed combination there, and a guy who can, at worst, create consistent separation, which is something they don't have when Paul Richardson is on the shelf. One of the bigger sleepers in the 2015 draft class at this point, Perriman has good length but will also prove dangerous after the catch. At one time I had him as a likely second-round pick, but now I see him as a close call in terms of overall ability next to the top few wide receivers in this class. He fills a need here.
32 Carl Davis New England Patriots (12-4) COLLEGE: Iowa Class: Sr HT: 6-4 WT: 320 POS: DT
Analysis: With the Patriots declining the option on Vince Wilfork, this pick makes a lot of sense. Davis had a fantastic week at the Senior Bowl, the question will be whether NFL evaluators believe they'll get that kind of player on a consistent basis, because Davis didn't always show that kind of ability at Iowa, where you wouldn't confuse him for a consistent disruptor against the pass. Davis won't collapse the pocket, but he can certainly hold the point against multiple blockers in the run game, which is something the Patriots are going to miss from Wilfork. No, Davis is not Wilfork, but he has a similar profile in terms of what he does best, and he can certainly deepen the rotation. Cornerback could also be a major need here, but it's really hard to say on that one before free agency.
Analysis: By now most people are aware the Bucs made the somewhat unprecedented move (at least as far as I can recall) of having Winston visit with the team and owners for a few days this week. This followed a great combine for Winston. I wouldn't read into it further than to say it reflects just how pivotal this decision is for Tampa, but I ultimately think the Bucs will end up with Winston, though it should be noted I'm certain Marcus Mariota will have a long visit as well, and that could make an impact. As for the player: Winston is a major talent, in a category with some of the big-name No. 1 QB picks we've seen. He's the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. He's big, durable, strong-armed and has both a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do. This is no lock, but it makes sense.
2 Leonard Williams Tennessee Titans (2-14) COLLEGE: USC Class: Jr HT: 6-4 WT: 302 POS: DE
Analysis: No change here from my previous mock, with a reminder that this pick is a high-leverage spot because it's the one spot you can trade up to and assure yourself of getting Marcus Mariota or even Jameis Winston if Mariota were to go No. 1 overall. That said, I'm not projecting trades here and I think Tennessee is in position to take the best football player available in the draft. Williams has the potential to be a force early in his career, make your defensive line better against both the run and the pass and offer scheme versatility. If Winston is available, he becomes the pick, but Williams makes sense.
3 Dante Fowler Jr. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13) COLLEGE: Florida Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 261 POS: DE
Analysis: Fowler put together an outstanding NFL combine, showing well above-average athletic ability with a 4.61 40 time and a 1.56 10-yard split at 261 pounds, and lest you think he's more athlete than player, it's certainly not the case. While the production wasn't off the charts at Florida, Fowler was asked to move around a lot, yet another factor that gives him the kind of "high floor" label we put on Khalil Mack at this time last year. He doesn't have to be a sack machine to be a really good player, and I do think the pass rush will continue to get better, which is what Jacksonville desperately needs.
4 Kevin White Oakland Raiders (3-13) COLLEGE: West Virginia Class: Sr HT: 6-2 WT: 215 POS: WR
Analysis: After running a 4.35 40 in Indy and looking great in drills, White has closed the gap on Amari Cooper on my Big Board. I still have Cooper ahead of him because he's the more well-rounded and accomplished receiver, but White's star potential is now clear and I can see him beating Cooper out at this slot. White is a threat all over the field, will make the contested catch, and has home run speed with the ball in his hands. He's the type of player who doesn't just make plays in the deep passing game, but can make traffic catches underneath and will also turn some short throws into big yards. The Raiders feel they have their franchise QB, so it's important to start surrounding him with talent and, in this case, a playmaker.
5 Shane Ray Washington Redskins (4-12) COLLEGE: Missouri Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 240 POS: DE
Analysis: For the record, Ray can or should also be listed as an OLB. The Redskins have needs all over the secondary, but there just isn't value to be found at this pick slot at either cornerback or safety. And the quickest way to improve a secondary without making wholesale changes back there is to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If the board breaks this way the Redskins could go with Ray or Randy Gregory and feel they're getting more productivity in the pass rush in 2015. Let's not forget this is another possible trade-up spot for a team that would want to get Marcus Mariota before the Jets have a chance to take him at No. 6, and given the many needs and missed picks of recent years, the Redskins might be smart to move down.
6 Marcus Mariota, New York Jets (4-12), COLLEGE: Oregon, Class: Jr HT: 6-3, WT: 222, POS: QB
Analysis: As I've said before, the reality is New York is no closer to knowing who its potential long-term solution at QB is than it was after the second day of the 2013 NFL draft. It's also pretty clear there isn't much to be found in free agency. I do think Mariota has been fantastic during the process, with very good workouts and spectacular interviews at the NFL combine, and I think he's been able to assuage some fears that he was merely a system-keeper at Oregon. You can question whether he's ready to help a team win games in 2015, but you can't question Mariota's physical profile or his potential to improve and grow as an NFL quarterback given his attitude and work habits.
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7Randy GregoryChicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: OLB
Analysis: John Fox has made it clear that he intends to go to a 3-4 base system on defense, which all but puts every player you could call an "edge" rusher on the roster on notice. Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston and Willie Young may be great making the transition; they may not. The Bears could use some assurance that they'll have at least one great fit as a stand-up 3-4 edge rusher, and if Gregory is still here at this point they should be happy. Gregory offers length, and explosiveness that plays up both on tape and when he's sprinting in Under Armour. There are some concerns about his lean frame but I think he plays the point pretty well and isn't going to be a liability against the run as he develops.
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8Vic BeasleyAtlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: ClemsonClass: SrHT: 6-3WT: 246POS: OLB
Analysis: No player has risen more on the draft boards of teams across the league coming out of the NFL combine. When you run 4.53 with a 1.59 split, post a vertical of 41 inches and put up a bench press total (35 reps) that's as good as the strongest nose tackles, and at a chiseled 246 pounds -- well, you turn some heads. Thing is, Beasley isn't just an athletic freak because he's been a one-man production line at Clemson, with 44.5 tackles for loss over the last two seasons. He can flat out create disruption and get to the quarterback, and that's exactly what Atlanta needs. The pass rush is desperate for production and Beasley can help soon.
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9Andrus PeatNew York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: StanfordClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 313POS: OT
Analysis: The Giants could go shopping at right tackle in free agency, but given the needs around the NFL, they could opt to pass and look for a starter there from the draft. Andrus Peat has the potential to be the best offensive tackle drafted in 2015 because even as he's an unfinished product, he's already shown he can keep a QB clean for long stretches and he's capable of dealing with pass-rushing speed on the edge. I think he has the chance to come in right away and compete for the starting job at right tackle and he offers the profile of a future blindside tackle. You can do worse here.
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10Amari CooperSt. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 211POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams aren't going to get a QB here. It's just not happening. And whether Sam Bradford is back next season, or it's somebody else, they need to find a way to improve the options in the passing game beyond the current mix of talented but complementary options. Cooper is a true No. 1, a supremely gifted route runner who doesn't just do it with smarts, but with 4.4 speed and the ability to set up defenders and then run past them. The Rams keep improving on defense and remain stuck in place on offense. Cooper is a true building-block piece.
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11Trae WaynesMinnesota Vikings (7-9)COLLEGE: Michigan StateClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 186POS: CB
Analysis: If Cooper were to slide past the Rams he's one of the easiest picks in the draft here, but if he doesn't and the board breaks this way it could be hard for Minnesota to pass on a player who both profiles as a safe pick -- the tape is there -- and an explosive one who can create points on the defensive side of the ball. Especially when this draft is again chock full of pass-catching talent. The Vikings are in decent shape up front, but they lack both depth and size at cornerback, which is no fun in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler on the schedule six times a year. (To be clear: That's a mix of a lot of competent throwing and potential for INTs.) Waynes isn't much of a reach here after a stellar combine and definitely hits a need.
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12Danny SheltonCleveland Browns (7-9)COLLEGE: WashingtonClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 339POS: DT
Analysis: Teams ran consistently and effectively on the Browns last season, and it started in the middle of the line, where they just didn't have the block-eaters after Phil Taylor was lost with an injury. And while we know the Browns need to add at least one pass-catcher who can come in and help early, Shelton landing here would be a gift. He's not as disruptive as sack and TFL totals indicate, but he can eat up double-teams at the point of attack and make others around him better. He has great awareness and will occasionally simply discard blocks and make the tackle himself. He can also eat up snaps. At 340 pounds, he's exactly what the Browns need in the middle.
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13Brandon ScherffNew Orleans Saints (7-9)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 319POS: OT
Analysis: The Saints could end up cutting one of their guards and couldn't do any better in adding a replacement in the draft if Scherff is still available here. I've said before I see Scherff as a high-floor addition on the offensive line, because even if he doesn't stay at tackle I think he can become a dominant guard pretty early on. The player isn't a facsimile, but you can make a comparison to how Dallas drafted Zack Martin and moved him inside as a rookie and saw him flourish; I think the Saints can count on immediate dividends from Scherff. He's one of the more dominant run-blocking linemen we've seen in the draft in the past few years, and he brings experience and the ability to take on the job like a professional right away.
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14DeVante ParkerMiami Dolphins (8-8)COLLEGE: LouisvilleClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 209POS: WR
Analysis: Brandon Gibson is gone, Brian Hartline is too, and Mike Wallace has a chance to be traded. In short, wide receiver is becoming a pretty clear need for this offense. Parker has as high a ceiling as you can find in this class and it wouldn't surprise me at all if someday we're talking about him as the best of the top three guys in this class, as I have them closely grouped. Parker will beat defenders to the ball on high-point catches with his size, leaping ability and catch radius, and he's underrated as a threat to add yards after the catch on short throws. I can see Miami going a few different ways here, but Parker makes sense because the Dolphins need to keep options available for Ryan Tannehill.
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15Arik ArmsteadSan Francisco 49ers (8-8)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-7WT: 292POS: DE
Analysis: Armstead to San Francisco would be a good balance of hitting an immediate need and the 49ers adding yet another player with high upside they can develop -- it's an area they've succeeded in consistently. The 49ers are staring at a situation where Ray McDonald is gone and Justin Smith is likely to follow -- and even if Smith continues to play it shouldn't be a ton of snaps. They do add Darnell Dockett, but he's 34. Armstead is big, powerful, athletic and raw, and while he won't be great right away because he's inconsistent and hasn't truly locked in a defined role, he's physically ready to help and should be able to provide a spark as a rotation player on the line.
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16La'El CollinsHouston Texans (9-7)COLLEGE: LSUClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 308POS: T
Analysis: The departure of Andre Johnson isn't going to make make the Texans depart from the blueprint of a team that can win the physical battle at the line of scrimmage. Depending on what happens in free agency the Texans could be looking for immediate help at right tackle and potentially guard depending on how they decide to move people around. Collins is a player many have pegged as a dominant NFL guard (not a bad thing to have), but I think he can stay at tackle and play well. At a minimum he's going to be fantastic in the run game, as he can simply take people where they don't want to go.
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17Malcom BrownSan Diego Chargers (9-7)COLLEGE: TexasClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 319POS: DT
Analysis: This pick could go in a few different directions. The Chargers need to add bodies along the offensive line; they need another pass-catcher; they could use another cornerback even with the addition of Jason Verrett in last year's draft. But I think the fit of Brown as a needed two-gapper on the interior of that defensive line makes a lot of sense. Brown isn't a complete product but he's one of the better run-defending solutions among defensive linemen in this draft and gives the Chargers more upside for a guy playing between Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget.
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18Jaelen StrongKansas City Chiefs (9-7)COLLEGE: Arizona StateClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 217POS: WR
Analysis: This draft is so loaded with pass-catchers I think Strong tends to get overlooked. He put together a great week in Indy, running 4.44 at nearly 220 pounds, and the fact that he came in slightly under 6-foot-3 was countered by a 42-inch vertical, a number that shows up on tape as Strong wins on balls in the air and won't just out-muscle defenders, but can shed them as a runner. I don't know if a true down-the-field threat is going to magically turn Alex Smith into a QB who is willing to test defenses deep -- or even if that's what Andy Reid really thinks Smith can be -- but Strong certainly helps make it an option, something this offense needs.
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19Ereck FlowersCleveland Browns (7-9)COLLEGE: Miami (FL)Class: JrHT: 6-6WT: 329POS: OT
Analysis: I can see Browns fans cringing at the thought of a first round with two picks that doesn't deliver a wide receiver. But let's remember this draft is packed with pass-catching talent, and if the board breaks this way I think the Browns could target a potential high-impact offensive lineman rather than taking the fifth receiver available at No. 19 overall. The Browns were really set back on offense last year when they lost Alex Mack, and while Flowers isn't a center, a player like him would have helped offset the brutal ripple effect we saw last year. For a team that has to run the ball to be successful on offense, making sure things are in a good place up front is crucial. The Browns can still get a couple of good pass-catchers from this draft.
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20Jalen CollinsPhiladelphia Eagles (10-6)COLLEGE: LSUClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 203POS: CB
Analysis: Chip Kelly is in the midst of remaking the roster, but be it via trade or in free agency he's going to see it won't be easy to simply plug holes at cornerback, an area where the Eagles need help. Collins is a high-upside play as a cornerback with good size, reach and athletic attributes. He can play physical but also turn and run with the fastest wide receivers in the league. He's not a complete package yet, but he can press, play off and shows awareness in zone. This is a big enough need that Collins probably won't be the only CB the Eagles draft.
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21Eli HaroldCincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)COLLEGE: VirginiaClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 247POS: OLB
Analysis: You can quibble all day about whether Harold is a perfect fit in Cincinnati; what can't be argued is that the Bengals' pass rush was absolutely dreadful in 2014 -- pretty safely the worst in the NFL -- and they simply need to find more explosiveness off the edge. Harold isn't the total package in terms of his ability to counter when he gets blocked or display great awareness against the run, but the guy has tremendous get-off and is an exceptional athlete who can beat people with quickness. The Bengals can't go wrong if they add a pass-rusher here.
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22Landon CollinsPittsburgh Steelers (11-5)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 228POS: S
Analysis: In my previous mock, I had Collins landing here as a player who can come in and contribute right away. Even if the Steelers decide Troy Polamalu is fine to come back for another year, they won't expect him to play every down, and Collins would not only help right away but serve as a logical replacement. He's a highly versatile safety who can make plays at the line of scrimmage and won't look bad in coverage. He brings a ton of experience. I also think getting the top safety in the draft at No. 22 would be a solid value.
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23Eddie GoldmanDetroit Lions (11-5)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 336POS: DT
Analysis: Mr. McShay made a good point on the podcast this week, which is that even if the Lions hold on to Ndamukong Suh they still need to add depth on the interior of the defensive line because they could lose a couple of pieces from last year's rotation. The Lions also need to add help along the offensive line, but even though you can't replace Suh from a performance standpoint, you can at least try to make sure the D-line doesn't go from strength to weakness in a single offseason. Goldman is a good interior defender who can occupy blocks and will flash quickness to disrupt, and has a chance to become really good if his growth continues. This is a need even if Suh is back. Without him, it's a true void.
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24Melvin GordonArizona Cardinals (11-5)COLLEGE: WisconsinClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 215POS: RB
Analysis: A healthy Andre Ellington gives Arizona some explosiveness out of the backfield, but he's not a player you want to rely on for too many touches, and a good running game will go a long way in Arizona. Gordon has the explosiveness that you need from an RB taken this high -- he's a true game-breaker -- but he's also proved durable. Linebacker is another big need for Arizona, but that's one the team can hit further down the board. If Gordon seems like a luxury pick, the Cardinals could certainly argue he's an immediate-impact player for a team that wants to win.
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25D.J. HumphriesCarolina Panthers (7-8-1)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 307POS: OT
Analysis: Last year at this point in the draft the Panthers addressed a major need when they added Kelvin Benjamin. That was a play-right-away situation, and even while you want to avoid that at tackle, this could be another one for a rookie because Carolina was dreadful here last year and free agency might not do the trick. Humphries is a guy who rose on my board after I saw him play well against some of the top pass-rushers in the SEC. He lacks polish, but he plays mean, keeps a wide base that makes him tough to get around, and the physical traits are there for him to potentially stick at left tackle.
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26Marcus PetersBaltimore Ravens (10-6)COLLEGE: WashingtonClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 197POS: CB
Analysis: This is a spot where the Ravens can either look to help their own passing game by adding a wide receiver, or look to stop the opposition's by hitting a big need at cornerback. Last year, injuries played a big role in Baltimore's pass defense essentially falling apart, a reminder that depth at cornerback is crucial. I've noted before Peters has some question marks -- he was dismissed from the team at Washington this past season -- but if it's purely a question of talent, he's a potential steal at this point in the first round. He has loads of natural ability, with playmaker instincts to go with very good ball skills.
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27Kevin JohnsonDallas Cowboys (12-4)COLLEGE: Wake ForestClass: SrHT: 6-0WT: 188POS: CB
Analysis: Dallas could go a few ways here, because the Cowboys have a need along the defensive line, and safety is also a question mark, but I'm not sure they need anything more than a cornerback who can play right away, and Johnson fits the profile. A standout on a lousy team, Johnson has good length for the position and moves and mirrors as well as any cornerback in the draft. He can make man-to-man coverage look so easy at times, and he's an active run defender. It's hard to play while ahead in the NFL if you can't cover, and Dallas would do well with this pick.
28 Cameron Erving Denver Broncos (12-4) COLLEGE: Florida State Class: Sr HT: 6-5 WT: 313 POS: OC
Analysis: If the Broncos want to keep the run game humming under Gary Kubiak they could use at least one versatile offensive lineman on the inside, and it'd be hard to do better than Erving at this spot. I like Erving at center because he was outstanding there after a midseason switch from tackle, but he provides extra value because he can play tackle as well and also has experience at guard. He's also just played a lot of football, period, and is going to adapt well. From center or guard he's particularly good at winning on the initial block and getting to the second level.
29 T.J. Clemmings Indianapolis Colts (11-5) COLLEGE: Pittsburgh Class: Sr HT: 6-4 WT: 309 POS: OT
Analysis: It's tempting to look at the defensive line here because the need is pretty obvious, but at this point Clemmings becomes extremely attractive because the potential is so significant. In terms of raw tools you're looking at maybe the best physical package in the draft for a future NFL left tackle. But Clemmings is a converted basketball player, a major physical talent who can be exposed by pass-rushers who have a few tricks. The Colts are OK on the left side but could definitely use another tackle in the portfolio and just talent, period, on an offensive line that took a step forward in 2014 but isn't close to a top unit.
30 Jordan Phillips Green Bay Packers (12-4) COLLEGE: Oklahoma Class: Soph HT: 6-5 WT: 329 POS: DT
Analysis: If I lined up needs for the Packers right now, it would be interior lineman as the top need, followed by an inside linebacker. Just based on the likelihood for immediate impact, it's a lot easier to find the linebacker further down the board. Phillips has a motor that can run hot and cold, but the potential is significant because he lands pretty close to the "freak" category of athlete for a guy who stands over 6-foot-5, has long arms to keep blocks at bay, and weighs 330 pounds. The effort can be inconsistent, but at his best he can control blocks (or toss them) and can pursue like a much lighter, faster player when he finds a lane. You have to believe you can get him to his full potential, but if you get him close, Phillips can be a scheme-versatile menace.
31 Breshad Perriman Seattle Seahawks (12-4 )COLLEGE: UCF Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 212 POS: WR
Analysis: Seattle was a play away from winning the Super Bowl -- a game in which the Seahawks had five players catch passes, none of them a wide receiver who was actually drafted. Seattle has been resourceful at wide receiver, but the group it has just isn't very explosive. The Seahawks could really use a decent size-speed combination there, and a guy who can, at worst, create consistent separation, which is something they don't have when Paul Richardson is on the shelf. One of the bigger sleepers in the 2015 draft class at this point, Perriman has good length but will also prove dangerous after the catch. At one time I had him as a likely second-round pick, but now I see him as a close call in terms of overall ability next to the top few wide receivers in this class. He fills a need here.
32 Carl Davis New England Patriots (12-4) COLLEGE: Iowa Class: Sr HT: 6-4 WT: 320 POS: DT
Analysis: With the Patriots declining the option on Vince Wilfork, this pick makes a lot of sense. Davis had a fantastic week at the Senior Bowl, the question will be whether NFL evaluators believe they'll get that kind of player on a consistent basis, because Davis didn't always show that kind of ability at Iowa, where you wouldn't confuse him for a consistent disruptor against the pass. Davis won't collapse the pocket, but he can certainly hold the point against multiple blockers in the run game, which is something the Patriots are going to miss from Wilfork. No, Davis is not Wilfork, but he has a similar profile in terms of what he does best, and he can certainly deepen the rotation. Cornerback could also be a major need here, but it's really hard to say on that one before free agency.